Leaked Memo May Pose Challenges for Biden Campaign

In a potential game-changer for the 2024 presidential race, internal polling data has indicated a steep decline in President Joe Biden’s popularity, with key swing states and even Democratic strongholds showing significant erosion of support. The data, obtained by Puck News from a memo drafted by OpenLabs—Future Forward’s research wing—highlights an alarming trend of dwindling voter confidence following Biden’s less-than-ideal debate performance.

Significant Loss of Voter Support

The polling results collected just 72 hours post-debate suggest a drastic drop in support among voters who supported Biden during his 2020 run. A surprising 40% of these voters now believe he should suspend his campaign—an increase from approximately a quarter in May’s survey.

Swing Voters’ Shift in Preference

Biden’s declining popularity is especially noticeable among swing voters—a crucial demographic for any presidential win. According to the poll, swing voters are now favoring Biden exiting the race at a two-to-one ratio. This shift is reflected in state-by-state losses, with Pennsylvania and Michigan showing Biden trailing former President Donald Trump by seven points.

Battleground States Show Decline in Support

The situation appears even more challenging when considering other pivotal states. In Arizona and Georgia, Biden trails by ten points; in Nevada, it’s almost nine points. These statistics indicate an overall trend of diminishing support in battleground states that casts doubt on Biden’s re-election prospects.

Dwindling Lead in Democratic Safe Havens

The poll also reveals vulnerabilities even within traditionally safe Democratic states such as Virginia, New Mexico, Maine, and Minnesota where Biden’s lead has shrunk to barely perceptible margins. Even more shockingly, he is trailing in New Hampshire, a sentiment echoed by another survey from Saint Anselm College.

Alternative Democratic Candidates Poll Better

The poll also included hypothetical match-ups with other prominent Democrats like California Governor Gavin Newsom, Vice President Kamala Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Each of these potential replacements polled better than Biden, indicating a deep-seated dissatisfaction within the Democratic base.

State-by-State Analysis Reveals Potential Collapse in Support

Despite attempts by the Biden campaign to downplay the implications of these numbers, the findings of the internal memo are hard to ignore. While a national poll shared by Biden’s top pollster Geoff Garin suggests a close race, the granular state-by-state analysis points towards a potentially disastrous collapse in support.

The Implications for Future Leadership

This leaked polling data brings into question Biden’s viability as a candidate for 2024. Not only do they reflect a critical loss of confidence but they also ignite an intense debate over future leadership within the Democratic Party. Without substantial improvement, President Biden’s quest for a second term is on decidedly shaky ground.

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